Modi-Covid19: Bio-Economic and -Politics Simulation
Within just three months after the arrival of the virus, as of the middle of March 2020, the fight against the Covid19 pandemic has left the international political and economic cooperation in a wreckage. Even Europe’s densely knit supranational institutions have been paralyzed by the tsunami of national go-it-alone approaches. Yet there are two commonalities across almost all of Europe: A lockdown on citizens’ freedom and open protectionism at the national borders. This is the assumed starting point for a qualitative simulation by Prof. Ernst Mohr of the challenges posed by a hypothetical mutant of Covid19, which in the following is called Modi-Covid19.
Modi-Covid19 is hypothetical! It differs by assumption from Covid19 in one respect: It poses the same health risk to all cohorts of the population. Workforce health is therefore more at stake than under the actual Covid19 pandemic. For this contingency a qualitative simulation is made of the health-cum-economic policy and politics challenges posed by a Modi-Covid19 epidemic. The simulation suggests that they would be markedly different from the Covid19 one.
Why is this of interest today? Modi-simulations are useful because governments will take their lessons from the current pandemic to better prepare for more pandemics to come. But viruses are born out of chance. Pandemics defense planning should therefore be based on mutation contingency simulation if different contingencies pose markedly different policy challenges. The Modi-Covid19 simulation suggests that pandemic defense planning should not solely be based on the actual lessons learned from the Covid19 event only, but also on a set of modi-virus simulations, of which the Modi-Covid19 simulation is an example of.
The starting point of the simulation are economies which have fallen immediately upon the arrival of the virus into a Nash-type protectionism equilibrium such as that of mid-March 2020. In a static model in which the disease is under control of lockdown policies, economic output depends on workforce health and politics optimizes the lockdown-intensity by heeding the political tradeoff between individual freedom and economic success. In this supply-side bio-macroeconomic framework of Modi- Covid19, quite different policy challenges arise compared to the Covid19 event, that can feed into an emerging contingency pandemics defense planning.
Find the full article here: Modi-Covid19 Bio-Economic and -Politics Simulation: National Resource Protectionism, Lockdown, Citizen Loyalty, Workplace Reorganization and Health-cum-Economic Policy Stabilization on the Road to Pandemics Defense Planning (Prof. Ernst Mohr)