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Verkehr & Smart Mobility: Andreas Herrmann als Experte bei „Tagesspiegel Background“ Starke ICI Präsenz bei den Konferenzen 2020 ACR und AOM Wenn sich Produkte selbstständig machen – Handlungsempfehlungen zur Adoption Robo-Shuttles können Lösung für Mobilitätsdilemma vieler Städte sein Tunnels in der Schweiz – Klimasünde? Das System Auto: Deutschland und die Neuerfindung der Mobilität Swiss Influencer Marketing Report 2020 Wie man Schocks, Überraschungen und Pandemien voraussagt? Führung in unsicheren Zeiten Podcast über „Mobility-as-a-Service“ Autonome Fahrzeuge – eine Lösung für die heutige Verkehrsbelastung? Die Produktion der Konsumgesellschaft Modi-Covid19: Bio-ökonomische und -politische Simulation Wie verändern «Autonome Shopping Systeme» die Zukunft des Einkaufens? Kein Grübeln und Aufschieberitis mehr – so führen Sie sich selbst von Intention zu Aktion! Wie sieht der globale Markt für Elektrofahrzeuge im Jahr 2035 aus und wird er nachhaltig sein? Forbes: „Eines lieben Menschen noch mehr als Geld gewinnen: es nicht zu verlieren!“ Erfolgreich auf dem Weg der digitalen Transformation: Die agile und kundenorientierte Softwareentwicklung Weniger Staus dank weniger Autos Wie smart ist die Schweiz? “Opinion Leaders & Branding” – die Rolle und Bedeutung von Meinungsführern für Brands Einmal wieder…Universität St. Gallen Platz 4 im Financial Times Ranking! Innovation für die Transformation – Herausforderungen der Gleichzeitigkeit in der Automobilindustrie The Digital Behavior Change Journey – Wie funktioniert die digitale organisatorische Transformation? Zukunft braucht Herkunft: Transformationsstrategien in der Autoindustrie Being One in a Million – der Wert von Einzigartigkeit bei Mass-Customized Produkten Bahnfahren mit Nebenkosten Deutsche Telekom: Vom Staatskonzern zum magentafarbenen Erlebnis Was sind die wahren CO2-Schleudern unter den Verkehrsmitteln? Der gläserne Konsument in Zeiten von Smart Products Wie wollen wir in 10 Jahren leben? Worauf kommt es wirklich an auf dem Weg zum autonomen Fahren? Prof. Dr. Andreas Herrmann wird Visiting Professor@LSE Forschung: MAKE IT HAPPEN – Klarheit und Umsetzungsfähigkeit in Zeiten unbegrenzter Möglichkeiten Publikation: Diese 7 Technologien verändern das Marketing – Was Marketeers wissen müssen, um auch in Zukunft erfolgreich zu sein Forschung: Wie Sprache uns (ver)führt – Der subtile Einfluss von Konsumvokabular auf die Kommunikation über Produkte in Online-Diskussionsforen Publikation: Alexa is talking to my customer! Herausforderungen und Chancen im Voice Marketing Forschung: Der Einfluss narzisstischer Kommunikation in sozialen Produktkonfiguratoren Video: Autonomes Fahren – Kurze Insights zu spannenden Themen Publikation: Wie sieht die Zukunft des Asset Managements aus? Sieben Trends, die die Industrie verändern Publikation: Wie können wir mithilfe von digitalen Plattformen gesellschaftliche Herausforderungen adressieren? Publikation: Wie begegnen wir dem demografischen Wandel?

Wie wollen wir in 10 Jahren leben?

 

Um langfristig relevant zu bleiben, müssen Organisationen neue Business Modelle, Produkte und Service Innovationen anbieten. Strategischer Customer Foresight kann Unternehmen dabei helfen, Lösungen und Antworten auf die Fragen und Probleme der Zukunft zu finden. Wie also bekommt man einen Einblick in die Zukunft?

 

 

 


Que será, será? Warum wir in die Zukunft blicken müssen

Zu verstehen und zu antizipieren, wie sich die Wünsche und Bedürfnisse von Konsumenten verändern ist zentral für das Überleben von Unternehmen im Markt. Alle zentralen, strategischen Entscheidungen im Unternehmen werden durch Annahmen über zukünftige Marktdynamiken geprägt. Jedoch ist es eine grosse Herausforderung konkrete Ideen über eine mögliche Zukunft zu entwickeln. Wie also können wir antizipieren, wie sich das Leben von Konsumenten verändern wird? Welche Methoden können wir nutzen, um die besten Einsichten zu erhalten? Ein Feld, in dem man diese Fragen beispielhaft studieren kann, ist der Mobility Sektor. Der allgemeine Trend zu mehr Automatisierung in allen Lebensbereichen hat den Wunsch nach autonom fahrenden Autos geweckt. Im Folgenden werden wir eine Methode zur Generierung von Customer Insights vorstellen und die Ergebnisse dieser Studie aus dem Bereich des autonomen Fahrens vorstellen.

Doch wer kennt die Zukunft?

Vorherige Forschung hat gezeigt, dass auch die besten technologischen Innovationen nicht erfolgreich sind, wenn diese nicht von Konsumenten angenommen werden (Kleijen et al. 2009). Nichtsdestotrotz verlassen sich die meisten Methoden zur Generierung von Zukunftswissen auf die Meinungen und Erkenntnisse von Experten, statt der von Konsumenten. Natürlich hat dieses Vorgehen seine Berechtigung: Es hat sich gezeigt, dass beim Einbinden von normalen Konsumenten in Innovationsprozesse oft nicht die Art von Einsichten generiert werden, die nötig wären, um tatsächlich eine strategische Neuausrichtung anzustossen (e.g. Ulwick 2005). Oft wird in diesem Kontext Henry Ford zitiert, dem nachgesagt wird, er hätte die Innovationskraft seiner Konsumenten folgendermassen eingeschätzt: “Wenn ich die Menschen gefragt hätte, was sie wollen, hätten sie mir gesagt, dass sie schnellere Pferde brauchen.“ Allerdings gibt es eine besondere Konsumentengruppe, die Unternehmen helfen kann, die nötigen Einsichten zu generieren: Trend Receivers (TRs) sind ausgewählte Konsumenten die Veränderungen und Potenziale des Neuen in einem bestimmten Bereich in besonderer Weise wahrnehmen (Hofmann, 2015). Für TR Studien werden diese Trend-wahrnehmenden Konsumenten eingeladen, um Zukunftstrends, mögliche Signale eines Wandels, Potenziale des Neuen und Konsumentenbedürfnisse zu diskutieren. Die Einsichten, die über diese Methode generiert wurden, können in einem Unternehmen zur Findung der Vision und strategischen Entscheidungen, sowie der Entwicklung von Marken, Produkten und Dienstleistungen beitragen.

Wir haben wertvolle Einsichten durch Trend Receiver Studien erhalten

Um zu verstehen, wie Konsumenten mit ihren Fahrzeugen in Zukunft interagieren, wurde eine qualitative Pilotstudie durchgeführt mit 29 visionären und Trend wahrnehmenden Konsumenten aus Deutschland, den USA und China. Im Rahmen der Interviews wurden drei innovative Anwendungsfälle für autonome Premium-Fahrzeuge identifiziert. Eine nachfolgende, quantitative Online-Umfrage mit 733 Teilnehmern aus denselben drei Marktregionen bestätigt die Relevanz der Anwendungsfälle für Mainstream- und innovative Kunden.

Die Erkenntnisse bestätigen, dass Autos sich durch die Möglichkeit der autonomen Steuerung in Zukunft in erweiterte Lebens- und Büroräume verwandeln. Dies hat verschiedene Implikationen für die Praxis. Die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse können helfen, Geschäftsmodelle, Markenstrategien sowie die Kommunikation von Organisationen anzupassen und Follow-up-Studien zu planen.

Was man davon für strategischen Customer Foresight lernen kann?

1) Kennen Sie Ihre Trend Receiver und binden Sie diese in Ihren Foresight Prozess ein
Jede Organisation sollte versuchen, relevante Individuen (vor allem ausserhalb der Organisation) mit besonderen Antennen für zukünftige Entwicklungen zu identifizieren. Dank sozialer Medien können Sie an den Meinungen und Erkenntnissen zu aktuellen Entwicklungen der Trend Receiver für Ihre Industrie teilhaben. Versuchen Sie mit diesen auch aktiv in Kontakt zu treten und diese in Ihre Foresight Forschung einzubinden.

2) Erweitern Sie Ihren Horizont
Fokussieren Sie sich bei der Suche nach Trend Receivern nicht nur auf die eigene Industrie. Höchstwahrscheinlich werden die grössten disruptiven Kräfte von außerhalb der Organisation kommen. Auch Lösungen zu aktuellen Herausforderungen können sie ausserhalb Ihres organisationalen Micro-Kosmos finden. Versuchen Sie aus diesem Grund Brücken zu anderen Sphären und Industrien aktiv aufzubauen und suchen Sie dort nach Ideen, die sich transferieren lassen.

Mehr zum Thema

Referenzen

  • Bloem da Silveira Junior, L.A., Vasconcellos, E., Vasconcellos Guedes, L., Guedes, L.F.A., Costa, R.M., 2018. Technology roadmapping: a methodological proposition to refine Delphi results. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 126, 194–206.
  • Hofmann, R., 2015. Visionary competence for long-term development of brands, products, and services: the trend receiver concept and its first applications at Audi. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 101, 83–98.
  • Kleijnen, M., Lee, N., Wetzels, M., 2009. An exploration of consumer resistance to innovation and its antecedents. J. Econ. Psychol. 30 (3), 344–357.
  • Ulwick, A. W. (2005) What Customers Want: Using Outcome-Driven Innovation to Create Breakthrough Products and Services, McGraw-Hill Companies.

 

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