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Januar 2020: Sie sind besorgt wegen der australischen Waldbrände. Ihr Nachbar erzählt, er hätte gerade Zoom-Aktien und eine Million Masken gekauft. Seien Sie ehrlich, sein Verhalten würde Ihnen merkwürdig vorkommen. Wissend wie fundamental die Corona-Krise unsere Leben verändert hat, scheint es nicht unwahrscheinlich, dass Ihr Nachbar Millionär geworden wäre. Rückblickend ist es einfach zu sagen, was man „hätte tun sollen“. Aber wie kann man heute wissen was zu tun ist, um das morgen erfolgreich zu meistern? In den letzten Monaten durften wir gemeinsam mit dem Institut für Marketing und der Marketing Review St Gallen an einem Special Issue zum Thema „Customer Foresight“ arbeiten. Im Folgenden präsentieren wir ein paar erste Eindrücke zu den Artikeln. Von Birte Karoline Manke

 

Was Sie im Special Issue „Customer Foresight” erwartet?
Eller, Schwartz und Hoffman zeigen wie Konsumentenforschung und Zukunftsforschung zum Feld Customer Forsight verschmolzen sind und was es bedeutet konsumenten-zentrierte Forschung zu machen. Die Autoren präsentieren ein Foresight Framework welches die Charakteristika der verschiedenen Forschungsfelder und ihr Zusammenspiel verdeutlicht. Zudem präsentieren sie einen kleinen Leitfaden für den Customer Foresight Forschungsprozess.

In einem zweiten Beitrag explorieren Eller, Schwartz und Hoffman wie Konsumentenforschung und Zukunftsforschung zum Feld Customer Forsight verschmolzen sind und was es bedeutet konsumenten-zentrierte Forschung zu machen. Die Autoren präsentieren ein Foresight Framework welches die Charakteristika der verschiedenen Forschungsfelder und ihr Zusammenspiel verdeutlicht. Zudem präsentieren sie einen kleinen Leitfaden für den Customer Foresight Forschungsprozess.

Wie sammelt man Informationen unter Unsicherheit? Welche Methoden für Customer Forsight gibt es eigentlich? Und für welche Situation ist welche Methode geeignet? Wenn Sie an einem generellen Überblick interessiert sind und sich eine Einführung in verschiedene Methoden wünschen, empfehlen wir Ihnen den Beitrag von Ivancic and Ott. In ihrem konzeptionellen Artikel, präsentieren die Autoren verschiedene Foresight-Methoden die verschiedene Daten hervorbringen. Zudem geben Sie einen kleinen Einblick in ein paar Best Practice Cases, die Sie vielleicht inspirierend für Ihre eigene Foresight Arbeit finden könnten.

Eine sehr zentrale Herausforderung, die im letzten Beitrag hervorgehoben wurde ist das Finden geeigneter Informanten, die ein Gespür für relevante Veränderungen haben. Hoffman und Lüken diskutieren in IhrenArtikeln jeweils das Konzept der „Trend Receiver“. Sollten Sie mehr über das Konzept erfahren wollen, seine Vorteile und Grenzen, sowie mehr zur Anwendung wissen wollen , lesen Sie mehr dazu in IhrenArtikeln.

Was kann man eigentlich mit sogenannten “Zukunftsszenarien“ machen? Wie nutzt und wendet man diese an? Wie funktioniert die Erstellung eines Szenarios? Wenn Sie gerne Antworten auf diese Fragen und weitere Informationen zu Szenario-based Customer Foresight erfahren wollen, dann lesen Sie mehr über die Methode der SIX im Artikel von Manke, Lehmann and Katz. Der Schweizer Finanzdienstleister hat vor Kurzem die Business Unit Innovation & Digital ins Leben gerufen und eine der Beiträge war die (Weiter-) Entwicklung eines Szenario-basierten Foresight Prozesses. Nach einigen Iterationen teilen sie Ihre Erfahrungen aus dem Foresight Prozess in diesem Artikel.

Ist es Zeit zu überdenken, wen wir in den Foresight-Forschungs-Prozess integrieren? Wie funktioniert eigentlich ‚customer‘ Foresight im B2B Sektor? Kann man Märkte erschaffen? Wenn Sie sich für diese Fragen interessieren, wird Ihnen das Interview im Special Issue gefallen. Wir haben mit Dieter Goerdten gesprochen, Head of Products and Solutions in der SIX business unit Banking Services (BBS), welcher maßgeblich an Zukunftsszenario „Pictures of the Future – Future of Money” beteiligt war.

Was wir durch die Zusammenstellung der Artikel zu verschiedenen Methoden ür Customer Foresight gelernt haben?
Im Allgemeinen gibt es nicht eine ideale Methode, die alle Bedürfnisse im Forschungsprozess (z.B. hohe Qualität und Verlässlichkeit von Daten und nur minimaler Aufwand) erfüllt. Allerdings bietet dieses Special Issue einen interessanten ersten Überblick und an manchen Stellung sogar spezifische Anleitung für verschiedene Zukunftsforschungs-Prozesse am Kunden. Kontaktieren Sie die Autoren, falls Sie Fragen oder Anregungen haben. Zum Schluss halten wir noch einmal die zentralen Erkenntnisse aus diesem Methoden-Überblick für die Konsumentenforschung fest:

1. Trauen Sie sich mit Ihren Kunden in die Zukunft zu schauen
Für sehr lange Zeit sah man den Beitrag, den Konsumenten zur Marktforschung machen können als sehr gering an. Henry Ford beschwerte sich angeblich einmal, dass hätte er seine Kunden befragt, diese sich nur „schnellere Pferde“ gewünscht hätten. Er schätzte die Fähigkeit seiner Kunden gering ein zu Innovationen beizutragen oder die Zukunft vorher zu sagen. Allerdings zeigen mehrere der präsentierten Methoden, dass es durchaus Möglichkeiten gibt Konsumenten (oder besondere Konsumenten) in den Foresight-Prozess zu integrieren. Durch die richtige Form der  Zusammenarbeit können ganz im Gegenteil interessante Perspektiven aufgezeigt werden.

2. Die richtigen Daten
Ein wichtiger Grundsatz aller empirischer Forschung lautet: Müll rein – Müll raus. Dieser Satz soll darauf aufmerksam machen, wie wichtig die Daten für die Qualität der zu generierenden Erkenntnisse ist. Dies gilt auch für die Zukunftsforschung am Konsumenten. Mehrere der präsentierten Methoden machen deutlich, wie wichtig es ist die richtigen Personen in den Foresight Prozess zu involvieren: Sei es die Suche nach Experten für die Bildung von Szenarien oder die Suche nach „Trend Receivern“. Aber es geht nicht nur darum ein paar Zukunfts-Denker auszuwählen, sondern im besten Fall bringen Sie auch verschiedene Perspektiven zusammen. Die Szenario Methode, die im Beitrag von Manke, Lehmann and Katz, näher beschrieben wird schlägt vor verschiedene Perspektiven in Zukunftsszenarien zu bündeln. Diese könnten dann gleichzeitig eine gute Grundlage sein, um Diskussionen um mögliche Zukunftsszenarien zu starten. Im Interview mit Diester Goerdten betont dieser die Wichtigkeit von Austausch über Zukunftsthemen. Oft wird Foresight Arbeit hinter verschlossenen Türen gemacht und die Erkenntnisse bleiben auch dort. Aber wie wäre es die Diskussion ein wenig zu öffnen und alle relevanten Stakeholder partizipieren zu lassen an der Frage: Wie wollen wir in 10, 20, 30 Jahren leben?

 

Titel der Artikel der Ausgabe:
Eller, E., Hofmann, R., Schwarz,J. O. (2020). The Customer Foresight Territory, in: Marketing Review St. Gallen, pp. 12-19.

Manke, B. K., Lehmann, T., Katz. M. (2020). Applied Strategic Foresight – Learnings from Trend Transfer at SIX,in: Marketing Review St. Gallen, pp. 48-55.

Ivancic, R. & Ott, S. (2020). Machine Economicus – Business Forecast 4.0 – Methods to Predict Short-, Medium- and Long-term Futures, in: Marketing Review St. Gallen, pp. 20-31.

Hofmann, R. (2020). Customer Foresight Practice – How to Access Future Markets Through Extraordinary People, in: Marketing Review St. Gallen, pp. 38-47.

Lüken, J.-D. (2020). Looking for Prophets? The Trend Receiver Approach, in: Marketing Review St. Gallen, pp. 32-37.

Goerdten, D. (2020). Interview with J. Gollnhofer & B. Manke: Lessons From Market Making – Customer Foresight in the B2B Sector and What We Can Learn From It, in: Marketing Review St. Gallen, pp. 06-11.

 

Mehr Informationen:

Hier geht es zum Special Issue Marketing Review St Gallen: https://www.marketingreview.org/shop

Hier zum Abonnement: https://www.marketingreview.org/product-page/jahresabonnement-der-marketing-review-st-gallen

Kontakt: birtekaroline.manke@unisg.ch

Bildquelle: Foto von Helena Lopes bei Unsplash

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