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Neue Podcast-Serie „New Mobility Planet“ mit Andreas Herrmann & Björn Bender (SBB) Verkehr & Smart Mobility: Andreas Herrmann als Experte bei „Tagesspiegel Background“ Starke ICI Präsenz bei den Konferenzen 2020 ACR und AOM Wenn sich Produkte selbstständig machen – Handlungsempfehlungen zur Adoption Robo-Shuttles können Lösung für Mobilitätsdilemma vieler Städte sein Tunnels in der Schweiz – Klimasünde? Das System Auto: Deutschland und die Neuerfindung der Mobilität Swiss Influencer Marketing Report 2020 Wie man Schocks, Überraschungen und Pandemien voraussagt? Führung in unsicheren Zeiten Podcast über „Mobility-as-a-Service“ Autonome Fahrzeuge – eine Lösung für die heutige Verkehrsbelastung? Die Produktion der Konsumgesellschaft Modi-Covid19: Bio-ökonomische und -politische Simulation Wie verändern «Autonome Shopping Systeme» die Zukunft des Einkaufens? Kein Grübeln und Aufschieberitis mehr – so führen Sie sich selbst von Intention zu Aktion! Wie sieht der globale Markt für Elektrofahrzeuge im Jahr 2035 aus und wird er nachhaltig sein? Forbes: „Eines lieben Menschen noch mehr als Geld gewinnen: es nicht zu verlieren!“ Erfolgreich auf dem Weg der digitalen Transformation: Die agile und kundenorientierte Softwareentwicklung Weniger Staus dank weniger Autos Wie smart ist die Schweiz? “Opinion Leaders & Branding” – die Rolle und Bedeutung von Meinungsführern für Brands Einmal wieder…Universität St. Gallen Platz 4 im Financial Times Ranking! Innovation für die Transformation – Herausforderungen der Gleichzeitigkeit in der Automobilindustrie The Digital Behavior Change Journey – Wie funktioniert die digitale organisatorische Transformation? Zukunft braucht Herkunft: Transformationsstrategien in der Autoindustrie Being One in a Million – der Wert von Einzigartigkeit bei Mass-Customized Produkten Bahnfahren mit Nebenkosten Deutsche Telekom: Vom Staatskonzern zum magentafarbenen Erlebnis Was sind die wahren CO2-Schleudern unter den Verkehrsmitteln? Der gläserne Konsument in Zeiten von Smart Products Wie wollen wir in 10 Jahren leben? Worauf kommt es wirklich an auf dem Weg zum autonomen Fahren? Prof. Dr. Andreas Herrmann wird Visiting Professor@LSE Forschung: MAKE IT HAPPEN – Klarheit und Umsetzungsfähigkeit in Zeiten unbegrenzter Möglichkeiten Publikation: Diese 7 Technologien verändern das Marketing – Was Marketeers wissen müssen, um auch in Zukunft erfolgreich zu sein Forschung: Wie Sprache uns (ver)führt – Der subtile Einfluss von Konsumvokabular auf die Kommunikation über Produkte in Online-Diskussionsforen Publikation: Alexa is talking to my customer! Herausforderungen und Chancen im Voice Marketing Forschung: Der Einfluss narzisstischer Kommunikation in sozialen Produktkonfiguratoren Video: Autonomes Fahren – Kurze Insights zu spannenden Themen Publikation: Wie sieht die Zukunft des Asset Managements aus? Sieben Trends, die die Industrie verändern Publikation: Wie können wir mithilfe von digitalen Plattformen gesellschaftliche Herausforderungen adressieren?

Modi-Covid19: Bio-ökonomische und -politische Simulation

Covid19 benötigte lediglich drei Monate, bis Mitte März 2020, um die internationale politische und wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit in ein Trümmerfeld zu legen. Selbst Europas dicht geknüpfte, supra-nationale Institutionen wurden durch den Tsunami nationaler Alleingänge wie gelähmt. Trotzdem bleibt fast ganz Europa in zwei Gemeinsamkeiten vereint: Der Lockdown von Freiheitsrechten seiner Bürger und offener Protektionismus an den nationalen Grenzen. Dies ist der Ausgangspunkt einer qualitativen Simulation von Prof. Ernst Mohr, welche die Herausforderungen, die sich aus einem hypothetischen Mutanten von Covid19 ergeben – im Folgenden Modi-Covid19 genannt – genauer betrachtet:

 

Modi-Covid19 ist hypothetisch! Es unterscheidet sich in einem Punkt von Covid19: Es stellt für alle Bevölkerungskohorten das gleiche Gesundheitsrisiko dar. Die Gesundheit von Arbeitskräften steht daher mehr auf dem Spiel als bei der tatsächlichen Covid19-Pandemie. Für diese Eventualität wird eine qualitative Simulation der gesundheitlichen, wirtschaftlichen und politischen Herausforderungen einer Modi-Covid19-Epidemie durchgeführt. Diese Simulation kommt zum Schluss, dass diese Herausforderungen deutlich andere wären als jene der aktuellen Covid19-Pandemie.

Warum ist dies heute von Interesse? Modi-Simulationen sind nützlich, weil Regierungen ihre Lehren aus der aktuellen Pandemie ziehen werden, um sich besser auf die kommenden Pandemien vor-zubereiten. Aber Viren werden aus dem Zufall geboren. Eine Pandemie-Verteidigungsplanung sollte daher auf der Simulation von kontingenten Mutationen basieren, falls unterschiedliche Kontingenzen deutlich unterschiedliche, politische Herausforderungen darstellen. Die Modi-Covid19-Simulation legt nahe, dass die künftige Pandemie-Verteidigung nicht nur auf den realen Lehren aus Covid19 basieren dürfen, sondern auch auf einer Reihe von Modi-Virus-Simulationen, wie die Modi-Covid19-Simulation eine ist.

Ausgangspunkt der Simulation sind Volkswirtschaften, die unmittelbar nach der Ankunft des Virus in ein Nash-Protektionismus-Gleichgewich gefallen sind wie das von Mitte März 2020. In einem statischen Modell, in dem die Ausbreitung des Virus durch Lockdown-Massnahmen kontrolliert wird, hängt der wirtschaftliche Output von der Gesundheit der Arbeitskräfte ab und die Politik optimiert die Lockdown-Intensität, indem sie den Tradeoff zwischen individueller Freiheit und wirtschaftlichem Erfolg ausbalanciert. In diesem angebotsgetriebenen bio-makroökonomischen Modellkontext von Modi-Covid19 ergeben sich im Vergleich zum Covid19-Ereignis ganz andere politische Herausforderungen, die in eine sich abzeichnende kommende Pandemie-Verteidigungsplanung einfließen können.

 

Mehr Info

Lesen Sie den gesamten Artikel hier: Modi-Covid19 Bio-Economic and -Politics Simulation: National Resource Protectionism, Lockdown, Citizen Loyalty, Workplace Reorganization and Health-cum-Economic Policy Stabilization on the Road to Pandemics Defense Planning (Prof. Ernst Mohr)

 

Kontakt: Prof. Ernst Mohr, ernst.mohr@unisg.ch

 

Bildquelle: Foto von Edwin Hooper auf Unsplash

 

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