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Modi-Covid19: Bio-ökonomische und -politische Simulation
Covid19 benötigte lediglich drei Monate, bis Mitte März 2020, um die internationale politische und wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit in ein Trümmerfeld zu legen. Selbst Europas dicht geknüpfte, supra-nationale Institutionen wurden durch den Tsunami nationaler Alleingänge wie gelähmt. Trotzdem bleibt fast ganz Europa in zwei Gemeinsamkeiten vereint: Der Lockdown von Freiheitsrechten seiner Bürger und offener Protektionismus an den nationalen Grenzen. Dies ist der Ausgangspunkt einer qualitativen Simulation von Prof. Ernst Mohr, welche die Herausforderungen, die sich aus einem hypothetischen Mutanten von Covid19 ergeben – im Folgenden Modi-Covid19 genannt – genauer betrachtet:
Modi-Covid19 ist hypothetisch! Es unterscheidet sich in einem Punkt von Covid19: Es stellt für alle Bevölkerungskohorten das gleiche Gesundheitsrisiko dar. Die Gesundheit von Arbeitskräften steht daher mehr auf dem Spiel als bei der tatsächlichen Covid19-Pandemie. Für diese Eventualität wird eine qualitative Simulation der gesundheitlichen, wirtschaftlichen und politischen Herausforderungen einer Modi-Covid19-Epidemie durchgeführt. Diese Simulation kommt zum Schluss, dass diese Herausforderungen deutlich andere wären als jene der aktuellen Covid19-Pandemie.
Warum ist dies heute von Interesse? Modi-Simulationen sind nützlich, weil Regierungen ihre Lehren aus der aktuellen Pandemie ziehen werden, um sich besser auf die kommenden Pandemien vor-zubereiten. Aber Viren werden aus dem Zufall geboren. Eine Pandemie-Verteidigungsplanung sollte daher auf der Simulation von kontingenten Mutationen basieren, falls unterschiedliche Kontingenzen deutlich unterschiedliche, politische Herausforderungen darstellen. Die Modi-Covid19-Simulation legt nahe, dass die künftige Pandemie-Verteidigung nicht nur auf den realen Lehren aus Covid19 basieren dürfen, sondern auch auf einer Reihe von Modi-Virus-Simulationen, wie die Modi-Covid19-Simulation eine ist.
Ausgangspunkt der Simulation sind Volkswirtschaften, die unmittelbar nach der Ankunft des Virus in ein Nash-Protektionismus-Gleichgewich gefallen sind wie das von Mitte März 2020. In einem statischen Modell, in dem die Ausbreitung des Virus durch Lockdown-Massnahmen kontrolliert wird, hängt der wirtschaftliche Output von der Gesundheit der Arbeitskräfte ab und die Politik optimiert die Lockdown-Intensität, indem sie den Tradeoff zwischen individueller Freiheit und wirtschaftlichem Erfolg ausbalanciert. In diesem angebotsgetriebenen bio-makroökonomischen Modellkontext von Modi-Covid19 ergeben sich im Vergleich zum Covid19-Ereignis ganz andere politische Herausforderungen, die in eine sich abzeichnende kommende Pandemie-Verteidigungsplanung einfließen können.
Mehr Info
Lesen Sie den gesamten Artikel hier: Modi-Covid19 Bio-Economic and -Politics Simulation: National Resource Protectionism, Lockdown, Citizen Loyalty, Workplace Reorganization and Health-cum-Economic Policy Stabilization on the Road to Pandemics Defense Planning (Prof. Ernst Mohr)
Kontakt: Prof. Ernst Mohr, ernst.mohr@unisg.ch
Bildquelle: Foto von Edwin Hooper auf Unsplash
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