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Forbes: „Eines lieben Menschen noch mehr als Geld gewinnen: es nicht zu verlieren!“

Wenn Menschen finanzielle Entscheidungen treffen, sind sie nicht so rational wie man meinen möchte. Die Tendenz des Menschen Verluste zu vermeiden, wird im aktuellen Forbes-Artikel etwas ironisch als Rezept für desaströse Finanzentscheidungen betrachtet. Besonders in Zeiten des Marktabschwungs kann uns die Abneigung gegenüber Verlusten dazu veranlassen, Aktien und Vermögenswerte zum schlimmstmöglichen Zeitpunkt zu verkaufen. Sie kann dazu führen, dass wir Marktchancen verpassen. Schlimmer noch, sie kann uns dazu veranlassen, im Gegensatz zu unseren langfristigen Zielen und Strategien zu handeln.

 

Würden Sie spielen? Stellen Sie sich vor,…
…man würde Ihnen folgendes Spiel anbieten: eine 50%ige Chance auf 6 Dollar Gewinn und eine 50%ige Chance auf 5 Dollar Verlust. Würden Sie spielen? Wenn Sie wie die meisten Menschen sind, würden Sie wahrscheinlich nicht spielen, obwohl die Chancen zu Ihren Gunsten stehen. Warum nicht? Das Phänomen, welches hier wirkt, ist unsere natürliche Abneigung gegenüber möglichen Verlusten. Es würde sich wahrscheinlich schlechter anfühlen, 5 Dollar zu verlieren, als 6 Dollar zu gewinnen. In der Tat haben einige Studien festgestellt, dass Verluste psychologisch doppelt so stark ins Gewicht fallen wie Gewinne.

Der Forbes-Artikel von Mark Travers bezieht sich auf eine kürzlich veröffentlichte Studie des Forscherteams, an dem Prof. Andreas Herrmann mitwirkte. 
Die Untersuchungen von Kellen Mrkva, Eric Johnson, Simon Gaechter und Andreas Herrmann, die im Journal of Consumer Psychology veröffentlicht wurden, ergaben, dass die große Mehrheit der Amerikaner Verlustavers ist, dass jedoch bestimmte Typen dem Verlust weniger feindlich gesinnt sind als andere. Die Studie untersuchte Merkmale, hinsichtlich derer sich die Verlustaversen von Menschen am anderen Ende des Kontinuums unterscheiden, und liefert Hinweise zur Überwindung dieses kognitiven Fehlers.

Wissen, Erfahrung und Bildung macht weniger anfällig gegenüber Verlustaversion.
In allen Studien wurde mehr Wissen, Erfahrung und Bildung mit einer geringeren Verlustaversion assoziiert, obwohl Menschen aller Wissens-, Erfahrungs- und Bildungsniveaus verlustfeindlich waren. So sind etwa Investmentbanker, Händler, Buchhalter, Betriebswirte usw. weniger anfällig für die kognitive Verzerrungen, die von dem Phänomen der Verlustaversion ausgehen, als Personen mit weniger Wissen und Erfahrung in Finanzentscheidungen. Bei Paaren ist der Partner, der die Finanzen und Investitionen des Haushalts verwaltet, tendenziell weniger verlustfeindlich, unabhängig vom Geschlecht. Unter den Autokäufern waren diejenigen, die mehr über ein bestimmtes Autoattribut (z.B. Kraftstoffverbrauch) wussten, weniger Verlustavers bei diesem Attribut, aber nicht bei anderen Attributen (z.B. Komfort). Darüber hinaus zeigten ältere Verbraucher bei verschiedenen Messungen zur Verlustaversion höhere Ausprägungen.

Welche Implikationen ergeben sich aus den Verlustaversion-Studien?
Ein großer Teil der vorhandenen Literatur über die Verlustabneigung wurde mit jungen, gebildeten Menschen an der Hochschule erstellt. Dies kann zu übertriebenen Schätzungen der Verlustaversion geführt haben. Die Daten der aktuellen Studie legen das Gegenteil nahe: Befragte, die älter und weniger gebildet sind, sind verlustfeindlicher, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Forschung mit Studenten die Größe und Bedeutung der Verlustaversion unterschätzt.
Weiterhin hat die Feststellung, dass ältere Menschen verlustfeindlicher sind, erhebliche Auswirkungen, wenn man bedenkt, dass das Durchschnittsalter der Weltbevölkerung rasch ansteigt. Prognosen gehen davon aus, dass sich zwischen 2020 und 2055 die Zahl der über 80 Jahre alten Menschen weltweit mehr als verdreifachen wird (Vereinte Nationen, 2017). Es ist daher äußerst wichtig, die Beziehung zwischen dem Alter und der Entscheidungsfindung der Verbraucher besser zu verstehen.

Forbes übersetzt die Studienergebnisse in praktische Handlungsempfehlungen zur Überwindung der kognitiven Verzerrung. 
Aufbauend auf den Resultaten der Studie des Forschungsteams um Prof. Andreas Herrmann hat Forbes die Implikationen gedanklich noch etwas weiter getragen und folgende Handlungsempfehlungen herausgearbeitet:

1. Denken Sie langfristig:
Wenn Sie weniger verlustfeindlich sein wollen – auch wenn Sie älter und finanziell weniger versiert sind -, besteht eine Möglichkeit  darin, die Entscheidung aus einer langfristigen Perspektive zu beleuchten. Menschen sind eher bereit, Aktien zu kaufen und Investitionen zu tätigen, wenn sie langfristig denken anstatt Gewinn und Verlust nur in der Gegenwart zu betrachten.

2. Lassen Sie sich nicht zu stark von den Medien leiten:
Besonders wenn der Aktienmarkt wild um sich greift, ziehen Verluste oft mehr Schlagzeilen und Medienaufmerksamkeit auf sich als gleich große Gewinne. Auch wenn wir dazu tendieren bei Entscheidungen unseren Fokus auf die Vermeidung von Risiken zu lenken, sollten wir dabei nicht vergessen die ebenso vorhandenen Gewinne zu analysieren.

3. Holen Sie unterschiedliche Perspektiven ein:
Wenn Sie zögern, ob sie die Aktie behalten oder verkaufen oder einen Gegenstand behalten oder wegwerfen sollten, könnten Sie überlegen sich zu fragen: „Was würde mir mein Freund oder Nachbar in dieser Lage empfehlen?“ Diese Form der Perspektivübernahme könnte das aufgrund der Verlustaversion so unangenehm empfundene Abstossen von unwesentlichen Besitztümern erleichtern. Weiterhin ist es bei Aktien und Investitionen immer eine gute Idee, sich auf Finanzberater zu verlassen, um sich vor kurzfristigen Fehlentscheidungen zu schützen.

Wir freuen uns, dass das Forbes-Magazin die Studie nicht nur aufgreift sondern mit wertvollen Empfehlungen für Praktiker bereichert.

 

Referenzen
As The Stock Market Tumbles, Psychology Research Urges You To Avoid This Common Error
in: Forbes (09.03.2002)
(Mark Travers)

Moderating Loss Aversion: Loss Aversion Has Moderators, But Reports of its Death are Greatly Exaggerated
in: Journal of Consumer Psychology, 2020
(Kellen Mrkva, Eric J. Johnson, Simon Gächter, Andreas Herrmann)

World Population Ageing 2017
United Nations, New York, 2017

 

Foto: Bild von kalhh auf Pixabay

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