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Autonome Fahrzeuge – eine Lösung für die heutige Verkehrsbelastung?

Das heutige Verkehrsnetzwerk stößt an seine Belastungsgrenzen. Neue Technologien, die zu einer disruptiven Veränderung der Mobilität führen sind erforderlich. Autonome Fahrzeuge (AVs) ermöglichen diesen Transformationsprozess; aber nur, wenn sie von politischen Entscheidungsträgern bedacht implementiert werden. Eine förderliche Regulierung und ein strategischer Plan zur Einführung von AVs ist eine Voraussetzung für deren Erfolg. Die Forschungsergebnisse, die auf einer systematischen Literaturrecherche basieren, geben politischen Entscheidungsträgern einen Leitfaden an die Hand, was bei der Einführung von AVs schon heute zu beachten ist. Auf Grundlage dieser Studie, werden in Kürze die Ergebnisse von Folgestudien veröffentlicht, die sich mit den Auswirkungen von AV auf Städte befassen. Von Maximilian Richter

Status Quo – die Kehrseite der heutigen individuellen Mobilität
Seit Autos auf dem Massenmarkt verfügbar sind wurde der gesamte Stadtraum durch Straßen und Parkflächen beansprucht (Gehl, 2017). Der motorisierte Individualverkehr wurde jahrelang von der Politik gefördert, da mehr Straßen und Infrastruktur mit mehr Wohlstand assoziiert wurden (UN Habitat, 2013). Dieser Trend führte zu einer Überlastung der Straßen und daraus resultierenden negativen Auswirkungen wie z.B. ein hoher Schadstoffausstoß, eine hohe Zahl an Todesopfern, Mangel an öffentlichem Raum oder sozialer Ungerechtigkeit. In historisch geplanten Städten wie Barcelona, Hongkong und Manhattan werden mehr als ein Drittel der öffentlichen Fläche durch Straßen oder Parkplätze beansprucht (UN Habitat, 2013). Darüber hinaus zählen Autounfälle zu den zehn häufigsten Todesursachen; sie zählen sogar zu den Haupttodesursache für junge Menschen im Alter von 5 bis 29 Jahren (WHO, 2018, 2020). Zusammengefasst führt der heutige Verkehr zu einer verminderten Lebensqualität.

Zukunftsszenario – AVs als Lösung für die heutige Verkehrsbelastung
In den letzten Jahren ist das autonome Fahren Realität geworden. Unternehmen wie Waymo oder NuTonomy haben bereits vor drei Jahren offiziell Pilotprojekte innerhalb von Städten implementiert. Wenn solche Unternehmen ihre Geschäftsfelder von Pilotprojekten auf flächendeckende Dienstleitungen in Städten auf der ganzen Welt ausdehnen, werden wir eine grundlegende Revolution in der Mobilität und eine dramatische Veränderung des Verkehrs und der Stadtform erleben. Es wird zwischen drei verschiedenen Arten des autonomen Fahrens unterschieden:

Fig. 1: Anwendungsfälle von AVs

Fig. 1: Anwendungsfälle von AVs

Künftig könnten AVs die Verkehrssituation drastisch entspannen. Der Einsatz von AVs könnte Schadstoffemission in städtischen Gebieten um bis zu 45% reduzieren (MacKenzie et al., 2014). Ein AV würde 11 (Fagnant & Kockelman, 2014) bis 20 (Duarte & Ratti, 2018) Parkplätze einsparen. Selbst eine 50%ige AV-Penetrationsrate könnte zu einer Reduzierung von 90% der Parkplätze in Städten führen und eine 100%ige AV-Penetrationsrate die Anzahl der Unfälle um etwa 90% senken (MacKenzie et al., 2014; Fagnant & Kockelmann, 2015; Chan, 2017; Clements, & Kockelman, 2017; Morando et al., 2018).

Was sind entscheidende Schritte, um AVs erfolgreich zu implementieren?
Politische Entscheidungsträger müssen die Notwendigkeit und die Auswirkungen von AVs frühzeitig verstehen um sinnvolle Rahmenbedingungen zu schaffen. Denn, nur wenn die Auswirkungen von AVs auf die Städte verstanden und ihre Implementierung systematisch gesteuert wird, kann ein positives Zukunftsszenario umgesetzt werden. Anderenfalls, wenn AVs als modernisierte Version von traditionellen Fahrzeugen eingesetzt werden, kann sich die derzeitige Verkehrssituation sogar verschlechtern. Vier Empfehlungen, die den Erfolg von AVs sicherstellen, können schon heute gegeben werden:

1. Verhinderung der Kannibalisierung des öffentlichen Verkehrs, um eine radikale Verlagerung vom Massen- zum Individualverkehr zu vermeiden
AVs erhöhen die Mobilität von derzeit nicht bedienten Bevölkerungsgruppen, wie zum Beispiel Menschen ohne Führerschein, mobilitätseingeschränkte Personen oder Senioren. Wenn diese Personengruppen vom öffentlichen Verkehr auf autonome Fahrzeuge umsteigen, wird der Verkehr um bis zu 14% zunehmen (Harper et al., 2016). Die Steigerung der Attraktivität des öffentlichen Verkehrs verhindert eine Verlagerung zu AVs. Zudem muss sichergestellt werden, dass AVs das bestehende Verkehrsnetz ergänzen, anstatt es zu disruptieren. Dementsprechend müssen die Politiker einen Rahmen für den Betrieb von AVs setzen. Insbesondere muss sichergestellt werden, dass AVs dort verfügbar sind wo das öffentliche traditionelle Verkehrsnetz endet.

2. Vermeidung von Leerfahrten, um einen stabilen Verkehrsfluss zu gewährleisten
Wenn sich mehrere Benutzer nacheinander ein autonomes Fahrzeug teilen, entsteht durch die Neupositionierung eine Leerfahrt zwischen den Fahrten. Dies führt zu einem Anstieg des Verkehrs um bis zu 15% (Harper et al., 2016). Bei der privaten Nutzung von Fahrzeugen entstehen Leerfahrten hauptsächlich durch Parken. Für PAVs gibt es daher nach dem Absetzen des Nutzers drei Möglichkeiten: den nächstgelegenen Parkplatz, den günstigsten Parkplatz – der oft außerhalb der Stadt liegt – zu finden oder so lange herumzufahren, bis der Fahrer das Fahrzeug wieder benötigt (Cruisen). Die ersten beiden Szenarien haben in der Regel marginale Auswirkungen (2-4%) (Bischoff et al., 2018). Cruisen hingegen hat drastische Auswirkungen und verdoppeln das derzeitige Verkehrsaufkommen selbst bei niedrigen Penetrationsraten (Bischoff et al., 2018). Gebühren für Leerfahrten während der Hauptverkehrszeiten könnten den Druck auf die bestehende Infrastruktur mindern.

3. Förderung von autonomous Mobility-on-Demand (AMoD) um AVs möglichst effizient einzusetzen
Der Zugang zur Mobilität in einem autonomen Mobility-on-Demand-System ist im Vergleich zu traditionellen Mobilitätsmodellen, die auf dem Besitz eines Privatwagens basieren, wesentlich kostengünstiger. Die Anschaffungskosten für ein autonomes Fahrzeug sind hoch. Die Nutzung als On-Demand-Service und Pay-by-Use führt zu einer raschen Einführung von AVs. Beispielsweise kann ein einziges SAV die Nachfrage von etwa 10 bis 20 nicht gemeinsam genutzten Fahrzeugen decken (Boesch et al., 2018). Wenn nicht nur das Auto, sondern auch die Fahrten geteilt werden, werden die Kosten weiter unter den Fahrgästen aufgeteilt und sinken im Vergleich zum PAV um bis zu 60% (Boesch et al., 2018).

4. Heute die Infrastruktur von morgen vorbereiten um den Weg für die AV-Implementierung zu ebnen
Derzeit wird davon ausgegangen, dass AVs in Städten elektrisch betrieben werden. Davon ausgehend, dass eine Stadt etwa 50.000 bis 250.000 On-Demand-Fahrzeuge benötigt (Bischoff & Maciejweski, 2016), wird klar, dass eine Vielzahl von Ladestationen benötigt wird, die es heute in den Städten nicht gibt. Darüber hinaus ist das autonome Fahren auf ein zuverlässiges Mobilfunknetz angewiesen, das eine Interaktion mit der Umwelt ermöglicht. Daher wird ein gemeinsamer Standard für die direkte Vehicle-to-Vehicle-Kommunikation und eine frühzeitige Anpassung der Infrastruktur benötigt.

 

 

Kontakt
Maximilian Richter; maximilianalexander.richter@unisg.ch

 

Referenzen

Bischoff, J., Maciejewski, M., Schlenther, T., & Nagel, K. (2018). Autonomous Vehicles and Their Impact on Parking Search. IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Magazine, 11(4), 19-27. https://doi.org/10.1109/mits.2018.2876566

Boesch, P. M., Ciari, F., & Axhausen, K. W. (2016). Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Sizes Required to Serve Different Levels of Demand. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2542, 111–119. https://doi.org/10.3141/2542-13

Gehl, J. (2017). “Active cities”. Retreived from https://www.cladglobal.com/architecture-design-features?codeID=31599

Harper, C., Hendrickson, C., Samaras C. (2018). Exploring the Economic, Environmental, and Travel Implications of Changes in Parking Choices due to Driverless Vehicles. ASCE Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 144(4), 1-40.

Fagnant, D. J., & Kockelman, K. (2015). Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 77, 167–181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.04.003

MacKenzie, D., Wadud, Z. & Leiby, P. N. (2014). A first order estimate of energy impacts of automated vehicles in the United States. In: Transportation research board annual meeting, Vol. 93rd. The National Academies, Washington, DC

Morando, M. M., Tian, Q., Truong, L. T., & Vu, H. L. (2018). Studying the Safety Impact of Autonomous Vehicles Using Simulation-Based Surrogate Safety Measures. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2018, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/6135183

Patella, S. M., Scrucca, F., Asdrubali, F., & Carrese, S. (2019). Carbon Footprint of autonomous vehicles at the urban mobility system level: A traffic simulation-based approach. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 74, 189–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.08.007

UN Habitat (2013). The relevance of street patterns and public space in urban areas. UN-Habitat Working Paper. https://mirror.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/StreetPatterns.pdf

§WHO. (2018, May 24). The top 10 causes of death. WHO. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death

 

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